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Abstract The export of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) from the subpolar North Atlantic is known to affect the variability in the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, the respective impact from the transport in the upper NADW (UNADW) and lower NADW (LNADW) layers, and from the various transport branches through the boundary and interior flows, on the subpolar overturning variability remains elusive. To address this, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the circulation of NADW throughout the eastern subpolar basins are examined, mainly based on the 2014–20 observations from the transatlantic Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) array. It reveals that the time-mean transport within the overturning’s lower limb across the eastern subpolar gyre [−13.0 ± 0.5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10⁶m³s⁻¹)] mostly occurs in the LNADW layer (−9.4 Sv or 72% of the mean), while the lower limb variability is mainly concentrated in the UNADW layer (57% of the total variance). This analysis further demonstrates a dominant role in the lower limb variability by coherent intraseasonal changes across the region that result from a basinwide barotropic response to changing wind fields. By comparison, there is just a weak seasonal cycle in the flows along the western boundary of the basins, in response to the surface buoyancy-induced water mass transformation. 

Abstract. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) at 26∘ N has now been continuously measured by the RAPIDarray over the period April 2004–September 2018. This record provides uniqueinsight into the variability of the large-scale ocean circulation,previously only measured by sporadic snapshots of basin-wide transport fromhydrographic sections. The continuous measurements have unveiled strikingvariability on timescales of days to a decade, driven largely bywind forcing, contrasting with previous expectations about a slowly varyingbuoyancy-forced large-scale ocean circulation. However, these measurementswere primarily observed during a warm state of the Atlantic multidecadalvariability (AMV) which has been steadily declining since a peak in2008–2010. In 2013–2015, a period of strong buoyancy forcing by theatmosphere drove intense water-mass transformation in the subpolar NorthAtlantic and provides a unique opportunity to investigate the response ofthe large-scale ocean circulation to buoyancy forcing. Modelling studiessuggest that the AMOC in the subtropics responds to such events with anincrease in overturning transport, after a lag of 3–9 years. At45∘ N, observations suggest that the AMOC may already beincreasing. Examining 26∘ N, we find that the AMOC is no longerweakening, though the recent transport is not above the long-term mean.Extending the record backwards in time at 26∘ N with oceanreanalysis from GloSea5, the transport fluctuations at 26∘ N areconsistent with a 0- to 2-year lag from those at 45∘ N, albeit withlower magnitude. Given the short span of time and anticipated delays in thesignal from the subpolar to subtropical gyres, it is not yet possible todetermine whether the subtropical AMOC strength is recovering nor how theAMOC at 26∘ N responds to intense buoyancy forcing. 

Abstract Fluctuations in the path of the Gulf Stream (GS) have been previously studied by primarily connecting to either the wind‐driven subtropical gyre circulation or buoyancy forcing via the subpolar gyre. Here we present a statistical model for 1 year predictions of the GS path (represented by the GS northern wall—GSNW) betweenW andW incorporating both mechanisms in a combined framework. An existing model with multiple parameters including the previous year's GSNW index, center location, and amplitude of the Icelandic Low and the Southern Oscillation Index was augmented with basin‐wide Ekman drift over the Azores High. The addition of the wind is supported by a validation of the simpler two‐layer Parsons‐Veronis model of GS separation over the last 40 years. A multivariate analysis was carried out to compare 1‐year‐in‐advance forecast correlations from four different models. The optimal predictors of the best performing model include: (a) the GSNW index from the previous year, (b) gyre‐scale integrated Ekman Drift over the past 2 years, and (c) longitude of the Icelandic Low center lagged by 3 years. The forecast correlation over the 27 years (1994–2020) is 0.65, an improvement from the previous multi‐parameter model's forecast correlation of 0.52. The improvement is attributed to the addition of the wind‐drift component. The sensitivity of forecasting the GS path after extreme atmospheric years is quantified. Results indicate the possibility of better understanding and enhanced predictability of the dominant wind‐driven variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and of fisheries management models that use the GS path as a metric. 

Abstract. Over the past decade, our understanding of the IndianOcean has advanced through concerted efforts toward measuring the oceancirculation and air–sea exchanges, detecting changes in water masses, andlinking physical processes to ecologically important variables. Newcirculation pathways and mechanisms have been discovered that controlatmospheric and oceanic mean state and variability. This review bringstogether new understanding of the ocean–atmosphere system in the IndianOcean since the last comprehensive review, describing the Indian Oceancirculation patterns, air–sea interactions, and climate variability.Coordinated international focus on the Indian Ocean has motivated theapplication of new technologies to deliver higher-resolution observationsand models of Indian Ocean processes. As a result we are discovering theimportance of small-scale processes in setting the large-scale gradients andcirculation, interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes,interactions between boundary currents and the interior, and interactions between thesurface and the deep ocean. A newly discovered regional climate mode in thesoutheast Indian Ocean, the Ningaloo Niño, has instigated more regionalair–sea coupling and marine heatwave research in the global oceans. In thelast decade, we have seen rapid warming of the Indian Ocean overlaid withextremes in the form of marine heatwaves. These events have motivatedstudies that have delivered new insight into the variability in ocean heatcontent and exchanges in the Indian Ocean and have highlighted the criticalrole of the Indian Ocean as a clearing house for anthropogenic heat. Thissynthesis paper reviews the advances in these areas in the last decade.